Bull against bear
July 20, 2013
July 18, 2013
Weekly update 7/18
We now have reports out from the strongest companies as well as infinity + 1 speeches from the Bernank. What else is there really?
We also have neutralisation of overly bearish sentiment as is witnessed in the AAII sentiment survey as well as put/call ratios and data from individual broker firms.
Hedged positions can consist of:
Long SPX, short tech in general or weak companies like BBRY, NOK, LOGI, AAPL, LXK, HPQ. Remember that the market boat has lifted these as well over the last months.
Long SPX, short commodities.
Long Germany, short PIGS.
Basically these are the themes that I have held as a base all year.
July 16, 2013
Weekly update 7/16
July 10, 2013
Weekly update 7/10
July 9, 2013
weekly update 7/9
July 1, 2013
weekly update 7/1
In 1-2 weeks or when S&P hits 1630-1635, whatever comes first, I will be fully short.
June 18, 2013
Weekly update 18/6
Looking for a consolidating summer with current levels being the higher area of that range.
June 5, 2013
May 19, 2013
Weekly update 5/19
1000 points. Pretty amazing! Obviously the strategy outlined in the last post was for a top to be created around 1580-1600. Sentiment and other technicals suggested in the beginning of May as we rose above previous highs and still bears stayed committed to their negative positioning that we would continue to pain trade upwards. I have stayed mostly short commodities and long equities, trying not to get net short. Obviously my calls on gold and silver have paid off well.
Same indicators suggest still that the pain trade is upwards even if some of that "bearish upward pressure" has been alleviated during the last week of opex squeeze. Friday afternoon it was especially visibile when DAX all of a sudden jumped 50 points, obviously a short squeeze. Looking at more extreme assets like Greek equities shows a parabolic development indicating extensive short covering. This suggests bears are beginning to capitulate. I am not suggesting there are even that many bears but on the margin given these central bank injections, it does not take a lot of bearish hedging to give the market this kind of bernanke put that just gives it this continous upward drift.
Now, we are at a point where technicals in terms of mean reversion potential etc is extreme out of a historical perspective. If we can only get some bear capitulation, we can begin a consolidation and downward drift period.
I would decrease position size and look at this from a longer than usual perspective, say a couple of months instead of couple of weeks, and for that period I see a high conviction of lower prices.
One simple and really disturbing fact of the markets is that they are 90% politically and central bank driven. Naturally that news flow decreases during the summer when they go on vacation. It is also the time when people in the northern hemisphere tend to group and protest against the measures that the same ruling guys/troika imposes on them. So that simple fact could actually contribute to a very real new normal seasonal effect (New Normal.X11?) where markets correct during the summer (on central planners vacation) and rise during the rest of the year.
Begin with long/short on strong vs weak markets (weak markets that have squeezed lately) Increase bearish positioning during the next 4 week period if subscribing to this game plan, but with a smaller than usual size.
April 23, 2013
Weekly update 4/23
The coming opportunity to once again sell the market at 1580-1610 is a gift. Holding long short positions in equities vs commodities has been profitable. Will look for shorts in fundamentally weak markets that has short squeezed lately, like spain and italy, together with shorts in commodities. Continously, on/off, after the market has corrected some, hedging is done with a strong market like the s&p.
April 15, 2013
Weekly update 4/15
I would not continue to aggressively sell commodities here.
In the S&P I would be looking for a consolidation move sideways in before mentioned intervals this week and perhaps next and then higher again if the bearish hedging continues at this pace.
Will evaluate the relative value of commodities vs equities as this consolidation period continues.
As always, sell volatility on any spikes.
April 3, 2013
Weekly update 4/3
1) Obviously we seem to be needing new all time highs in SPX and DAX to finally flush out the last of the bearish speculators. I do not expect much follow through and will follow the scenario outlined in the last post with a trading range between 1540 and 1570.
2) Sentiment, technicals and fundamentals now warrant a decline below 1540, maybe all the way to 1500-1510 in to earnings season.
Both these statements I actually hold on to still. I am short puts and calls around this strategy. Tomorrow is ECB day and there is a tradable chance (i.e. market is underestimating the chances of a rate cut IMO), that ECB lowers the rate or signals strongly for lower rates. That would create a huge spike since short interest has risen the last few days near the all time highs in the SPX. Without that ECB fuel, I expect us to visit 1510 without much of a pause within the next 1-2 weeks. A second trigger could be the payrolls report friday. So within that event setup lies the trading strategy.
I would hold onto the statement selling around 1570-1575, expecting we do visit the region around 1510 into earnings season. THAT would provide fuel for another leg higher but that is also a leg I would sell in to... altough at slightly higher levels, lets say even above 1600 if we are lucky.
That is my road map at the moment. Obviously any long equity exposures are hedged partly or completely by short commodities as pointed out previously and in the yearly strategy update.
March 21, 2013
Weekly update
March 15, 2013
ATH
Obviously we seem to be needing new all time highs in SPX and DAX to finally flush out the last of the bearish speculators. I do not expect much follow through and will follow the scenario outlined in the last post with a trading range between 1540 and 1570.
March 8, 2013
Strategy update
So, we have come a long way in a short period of time. SPX at close to all time highs, indices everywhere on multi year highs. And people are still very bearish. That is the force driving this market higher still, in a pattern that means far between corrections and that corrections, when they come, happen at the point bears capitulate strongly, like >+1% days. I am starting to balance my portfolio from net long, to balanced (long equities balanced by short equity names mostly in the tech space as well as commodities).
I will also let myself be short some indices, mainly southern europe, going in to march and april. Below I offer a daily 1 year view and weekly 20 year view of SPX. First, I believe we will make some swings around these levels, to frustrate the hell out of bears who will pile on shorts on any decline and then run for cover on new highs, as well as new high buyers that will be whipsawed out of the market... in numbers lets aim for 10-30 point swings in SPX with a slight upward bias, moving in interval 1540-1570.
Intermediate term ~3 months, I would say it makes sense to look for sideways, if not lower prices from around these levels.
Choose your aggressiveness, long/short according to earlier strategies, equities/commodities or go outright short, depending on your risk level. You can also choose to go long SPX vs short NDX or long SPX vs short european indices etc.
February 28, 2013
Chart update
Silver
Gold
SPX - looking for a blow off top between 1530 and 1550, then some sideways/down action until we build a base.
February 22, 2013
Weekly update
February 18, 2013
February 14, 2013
Weekly update 2/14
Nice to see precious metals breaking down. This could get ugly on the downside with everybody and their granny long.
February 8, 2013
Weekly update 2/8
The first estimate of when to start selling is mid march. That is when according to my analysis of sentiment, fundamentals and other technicals, we will have a first window opportunity of taking advantage of a potentially neutralized bearish sentiment which can give way for some real profit taking. Until then, stay long.
February 3, 2013
Weekly Update 2/3
Continuing to sell equity volatility on any increase in premiums is a very profitable strategy in this environment, as long as premium does not reflect the fact that markets will be dead (prices set by central banks) for some time still. After a 1-2% decline I would be selling atm puts.
I still prefer selling the commodity spectrum (especially precious metals) on any upticks, and especially when we are close to "risk market highs", which we are at the moment. Then the long equities, short commodity trade makes a lot of sense to increase in position size. Also to take advantage of the super short squeeze we have seen in some fundamentally very weak names like RIMM/BBY, NOK, AMD, LXK, XRX, PHILIPS, FB, LOGI. Short these against long positions in the likes of GOOG, IBM, GE, MCD, PG etc...
January 31, 2013
Weekly update 1/30
January 29, 2013
Weekly update 1/29
My strategy will still be to sell volatility on any day spike and collect some premium. Writing covered calls is an excellent strategy in this environment where the market is stretched to the upside but still has limited downside. I would also write some puts as we go down 10-20 handels to best take full advantage of the consolidation phase.
January 25, 2013
Chart update 1/25
Considering the rapid rise and many days without correction I think the market will frustrate the hell out of both bulls and bears in the coming weeks, a trendless low volatility market say 1490-1510. Then we will see some final push in to 1520-1530 where the situation will need to be reevaluated but for now I am comfortable shorting equities there and being long short individual equity names as well as long short equity index vs commodities on the way up there. Most likely we will have a trendless market up there for some months.
What is more interesting and potentially trending is the commodity space. Gold could be breaking down hard and to a lesser degree copper. I believe there are two drivers behind this move now, 1) the beginning of the first period end of money printing (i.e. there will be more later on). 2) the great asset class rotation from interest bearing assets to income generating assets.
January 23, 2013
Apple earnings
Weekly update 1/23
This also rhymes with generally excessive hedges in the risky markets which means any short positions in the equity markets will have to wait until these hedges have been neutralized.
January 17, 2013
Weekly update 1/17
I think my strongest calls on 1) low volatility / sell volatility on spikes, and 2) short commodities vs equities, still are the place to be. Looking at individual equity names there has been huge rallies in the most shorted stocks lately. They are mostly still awful businesses so the upcoming short opportunity will not be in the major indexes but in individual names. I am preparing a basket of shorts against the market to be entered gradually as the market will be topping out/drifting sideways during the period starting february and forward. I will then also try a short basket of commodities against equities, although the hedge will not be 1:1 since I also believe there will be a decline in equities in absolute terms but not in relative terms.
January 3, 2013
Weekly update 1/3
1) Debt ceiling relief. Short term, sell voll and await a further squeeze to 1480-1500. There it's time to be net short again. Seems like we will have a strong NFP report tomorrow and maybe finish the squeeze into january opex.
2) The Feds announcement of ending QE 2013! This is huge. My calls on buying USD, selling commodities including gold was valid even without this announcement. Now these strategy calls seems like the best bets for the year. Sell everything commodity and small cap like and buy large cap and relatively safer assets. Don't confuse end of QE with end of 0 short term interest rates. I believe that further along there will be requirements for more QE and then new buying opportunities in commodities. We are far from there right now though. The bullish retail speculators need to be flushed out.
December 31, 2012
Strategy update 2013
Even considering last few years of totally central bank and politics driven markets, this market right now is extremely event driven out of Washington. It is very likely we get a whipsaw movements depending on what happens in the next few days. I have a clear strategy how to play it and it rhymes with what I have advocated here many times last few years. Simplified it is:
Sell the rally and buy the dip.
That single statement is the most important to remember going forward as well and my strategy piece for 2013 would be titled exactly that. There simply is no real long term growth driver like previous 30 years and there simply is too much intervention in price levels for a large price decline.
More short termish, any excessive reaction to the fiscal cliff will be mean reversion traded. In the next few weeks, no matter the outcome, I think we will test around 1350 in the S&P. But that level will be bought by me. How to react to the following upswing to 1400-1430 again is another story.
For 2013 some of my themes that I will trade around will be:
Short base metals and crude oil against equities and gold (on a flush out of extreme bullishness in gold).
Short relative small cap tech companies against large global mega cap tech companies.
Long global mega cap companies.
Long USD vs SEK.
Long SPX vs OMX.
Sell volatility on any spike.
Happy new year!
December 3, 2012
Weekly update 12/3
Very weak technicals here with negative divergences in weekly RSI translating in to long term weakness in prices.
November 28, 2012
Weekly update 11/28
This could be the last upmove in equities before we get a bigger correction going (both in time and space). Emerging markets are horribly weak and also some developed markets like export oriented Sweden which also has not had its housing market crash yet (but it will), compared with for example the S&P. So there are many ways to setup long/short portfolios in this environment.
In many markets it is obvious that central bank actions are boosting financials relative to industrial. This I take as a sign as the final push higher, when fundamentals (layoffs) catch up, it will hurt everyone. But it is more - both in fundamental analys and technical analysis - a projection about generally "dead" markets than something that will crash like post 2000 and 2008.
November 25, 2012
Weekly update
November 21, 2012
Weekly update 11/21
Election squeeze, and over done sell off and now right back at 1390. A lot of technical damage was done the last weeks. If the SPX looks bad, commodities like oil and copper and some tech names are outright horrible. The only factor that is worse than these charts is sentiment. Sentiment is so bearish it only takes a minor piece of good news, like a half hearted fiscal cliff solution, to push this market to around year highs.
I am looking for a brief decline post thanksgiving to flush out some of the swing bulls and then a continued bearish sentiment driven squeeze to around new highs. This position could easily be hedged by short positions in some commodities as well as a long position in the dollar. It looks like emerging markets will lead the way to the downside after this final squeeze. Right now, let the option premium decay in to the low volatility holiday season.
November 6, 2012
Weekly update 11/6
I also recommend creating long short portfolios, shorting weak technology names and going long index. Oil and copper also looks like a good shorts on this squeeze.
October 31, 2012
Weekly update 10/31
After a week of wound licking I am ready for a new position in the market. With SPX at 1405 and projected range of 1400-1500 in to the new year, the area around 1400, especially given elevated vix, is excellent for selling atm puts. I am prepared for perhaps one final shakeout so I take half the position now and half on an event related move higher or on a shakeout between 1390 and 1400.
The vix is at 18.6 vs a realized SPX 20-day volatility ~10, which strengthens the case of selling option premium.
October 23, 2012
October 22, 2012
Weekly update 10/22
October 20, 2012
October 13, 2012
Weekly update 13/10
Relative strength and weakness studies show that it will continue to be a good investment strategy to be long SPX and short countries with strong currencies like SWEDEN. That can also be hedged by a long position in USDSEK.
October 7, 2012
Weekly update 7/10
1) central banks
2) companies are the finest materia on earth, valuations, debt levels etc.
3) a generally bearish investment community
4) a lean business cycle without general excess production that would cause a traditional recession.
(1) is a long term play. We will obviously have tradable downturns of +5% even during this period of central bank activism. But probably not until either of (2), (3) or (4) turns negative. The first tradable downturn in some time i see on the horizon is after some bear, or "not long enough" long only capitulation later this year. We are not there yet but some shorting of calls and other top consolidation strategies will be initiated later this month. I believe this low growth low volatility environment is generally good for global companies relative to both commodities ( except precious metals), and small caps. All together the downside is limited to perhaps 5% from the top. Increasing longs on downturns is preferred to shorting highs. Bearish views should be expressed with long short trades.
No point chasing downside next week either, stay long and lighten up on strength, increase on 5-10 handles from highs.
October 4, 2012
Housing bubbles, sweden and USA
"Swedes believe in higher house prices"
I have updated the chart that I have produced for a couple of years now, an overlay of real swedish house prices on top of the famous chart from professor Schiller of american real house prices.
What is striking is how swedish house prices have followed american house prices with some added volatility. It is also striking that while american house prices seem to have bottomed (not very well illustrated by this chart since for american prices, it ends 2011), the economy seems to find new traction even in the industrial sector, where wages are much more competitive than in Sweden, where companies also now have the artificially highly valued swedish krona to handle.
The swedish krona is a major short for me at these levels. The previous years success of the swedish economy is based on a housing bubble, nothing else, as illustrated in this chart. Government debt levels will rise quickly as the wellfare system kicks in to compensate newly laid off people as well as eventually bailing out home owners/banks.
The swedish price series is based on the "Residential houses for permanent living" or "Småhus för permanentboende" price series deflated by the main consumer price index.
Husbubbla, Fastighetsbubbla, Sverige.
October 3, 2012
S&P 500 Earnings and revenue growth
October 2, 2012
Ray Dalio’s Big Picture View
In the last few years of this stage, frequently bubbles occur. . . . These bubbles emerge because investors, businessmen, financial intermediaries, individuals, and policy makers tend to assume that the future will be like the past so they bet heavily on the trends continuing. They mistakenly believe that investments that have gone up a lot are good rather than expensive so they borrow money to buy them, which drives up their prices more and reinforces this bubble process. . . . Bubbles burst when the income growth and investment returns inevitably fall short of the levels required to service these debts. . . . The financial losses that result from the bubble bursting contribute to the country’s economic decline. Whether due to wars or bubbles or both, what typifies this stage is an accumulation of debt that can’t be paid back in nondepreciated money, which leads to the next stage.
And Stage 5:
October 1, 2012
Weekly update 1/10
September 28, 2012
Update 9/28
September 26, 2012
Update 9/26
I will take the rest of the week to close net short positions and be net long, gradually increasing the long percentage to maximum by latest middle next week.
September 25, 2012
Update 9/25
Update 2:40 PM EST.
Are you ready to buy the dip?
September 24, 2012
Update 9/24
The previously suggested strategy to buy dips in the market seems to hold well. I have been succesful trading .5% swings. It seems like the market sentiment is a bit too positive at the moment for the market to make another sustained up move just yet. We probably need to see a bit of a flushout beyond these sideways consolidation movements as well as a new trigger, like q3 earnings. Sell rallies and buy the 2% dip.
September 22, 2012
S&P 500 priced in gold and oil.
Short SPX, Long Gold, one of my major trades for 2012 now that the next leg in central bank activism has been initiated and equities generally have squeezed away most of the risk premia.
Short SPX, Long Gold. |
Short SPX, Long WTI
Ritholtz posted a relating chart with gold compared to the consumer price index. That is a flawed measure in my opinion since the consumer price index will never reflect inflation at this stage in the printing cycle.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/is-gold-cheap-or-expensive-look-to-china-india/
Swedish business magazine Affärsvärlden in http://www.affarsvarlden.se/tidningen/article3541208.ece relates gold with the tulip bubble. In other words, we are quite far from the contra-magazine-indicators that usually follows with a true bubble. |
Companies continue to lower Q3 guidance
This implies an investor need to pay attention to
a) sentiment swings.
b) p/e-levels (base case interval 11-15).
c) central banks, the monetary base and price equities in terms of gold, oil etc.
So far, 103 companies in the index have provided guidance for the third quarter. Of those, 80% have guided below Wall Street consensus estimates, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. That’s the most negative outlook since FactSet began tracking the figures in the first quarter of 2006.
Adding insult to injury, S&P 500 companies are projected to see earnings drop year-over-year for the first time in 12 quarters. Third-quarter earnings are currently estimated to drop by 2.7% for the S&P 500 as a whole, the worst forecast growth rate over the past 12 quarters, Butters added. At the beginning of the quarter, analysts had been forecasting earnings growth of 1.9%.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/09/21/many-sp-500-companies-forecasting-third-quarter-misses/
In another recent article, this phenomena is demonstrated by a simple dividend model.
The model, at least the variant I will focus on for this column, is breathtakingly simple. It says that the market’s long-term return will be a function of just two things: the current dividend yield and real growth in earnings and dividends.
Since this latter growth rate over the last century has averaged about 1.4%, we can forecast what the market will do over the next decade by simply adding the market’s current dividend yield, the assumed real growth rate of 1.4%, and expected inflation.
These three components today add up to a nominal return of 5.6% annualized, according to Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, an investment advisory firm — or 3.4% in real terms.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-future-return-just-56-annualized-2012-09-21
September 15, 2012
Update 9/14
September 11, 2012
Strategy update 9/11 2012
In this environment, daytrading probably needs to be limited compared to previous years. For myself, that means significant reaollocation aprox once a week. A more basic investor should apply a strong focus on minimizing costs and to switch focus to dividends.
Sentiment studies and anecdotal reports suggest a very, if not bearishly positioned, at least "not very long" investors. Although downside ahead will be limited as long central bank puts are in place, the upside will be limited by all the aforementioned factors raised on the blog many times and remain relevant. To make clear how extreme I look at central situation. I think next year the S & P 500 moves within a 10-15% range. Approximately 5% upside and 10% downside. I will act accordingly and work with mean reversion trading.
Directionally (weekly focus), my next activity will be in coming weeks to use dips of 1-2% in major indexes to swing trade the next leg up.
Mean reversion/Consolidition (daily focus), until that leg starts we will probably be stuck in this 1-2% or less consolidition phase.
Hedged bets (monthly foxus), will consist of
a) long short trade in precious metals vs industrial metals.
Some oil will be used for long trading as well but only on unrational SPR- or other rumour related dips.
b) long short trade within tech space, long tech companies with a brand/margins, short tech companies without a brand/margins (to really simplify the strategy, but really, that is it's core).
c) long worlds largest global companies, short more regional ones of same operational focus but limited to (most interesting) Europe.
As a general note on shorting I find it more and more difficult to identify good short sales. There are some in the tech space still though but many, like AMD, LXK, LOGI have already been slaughtered and should await squeezes until new shorts on these or long/short.
October 7, 2011
Dagsuppdatering 7 oktober
October 3, 2011
Dagsuppdatering 2 oktober
September 23, 2011
Dagsuppdatering 23 september
Jag efterlyste en bottenkörare inför Q3-rapporterna. Ett nedställ har vi fått. Jag hoppades dock att det i tid skulle ta längre tid och också omfatta t.ex. nästa sysselsättningsrapport som kommer i början av oktober.
ECBs roll är fortsatt mycket aktiv i PIGS-bonds. "Tyvärr" är det så illa ställt att trots köp i högre takt än FEDs QE1/2 så stiger räntor i PIGS, framför allt är det italien och spanien som är relevant att följa. Man verkar dock inte vilja köpa mer än att räntorna stiger sakta, för att bibehålla tryck på landet att genomföra fiskala åtgärder och att senare EFSF ska ta över stödköpen. Det är en känslig ekvation då EFSFs storlek inte räcker för att ta över ett "shock and awe"-stöd, utan måste kombineras med faktisk budgetbalans som övertygar marknaden.
Nytt sedan föregående inlägg är dagens anekdoter om massiva margin calls i det mesta; guld, silver, koppar olja. Det kan vara en kapitulation som är värd att köpa in i lite. Flera perma-bulls börjar också bli darriga på rösten och ge vika, vilket också är ett tecken på kapitulation. Jag väljer att handla lång råvaror mot kort börsindex samt lång selektiva aktier inom bl.a. tekonologi och energi/material, delvis hedgat mot index. Detta är en trade som bör kunna hållas genom Q3 rapporteringen, med ökad hedge kring vissa makrorapporter.
September 17, 2011
Månadsuppdatering september 2011
Allra helst vill jag se en ny bottenkörare inför Q3-rapporterna. Därför lägger jag mig net short mot mitten av veckan. Förmodligen blir FOMC en sell the news event. Framåt rapportsäsongen finns det många bolag som kommer visa siffror som är helt opåverkade av turbulensen. Måste jag välja en sektor blir det IT, men mer specifikt bolag som Intel, Apple, IBM. En lång/kort (kort index)portfölj med dessa som bas kan jag som jag ser kommande kvartal, tänka mig behålla på lång sikt.
I mer närtid gäller dock att ha respekt för ECBs köpande av PIGS-skulder. Frågan man ställer sig är omkring ECBs inblandning. Om ECB kan köpa obligationer fritt, vilket man nu gör och som är huvudfaktorn till vändningen på börsen, varför ha EFSF över huvud taget? Varför ska EFSF gälla Grekland, Portugal, Irland men ECB tar hand om Italien och Spanien (samt även övriga)...
Givetvis är det för att EFSF är för liten för att ta hand om Italien och Spanien. ECB har redan, på två månader, köpt omkring halva EFSFs kapacitet i PIGS-bonds.
Så, vad är egentligen skillnaden mellan centralbank (penningpolitik), finanspolitik, enskilda länder samt EMU som region... Jag ser det inte.
Detta är ett politiskt problem som kommer växa sig starkare och starkare tills folket, både i pigs-länderna och rescue-länderna, säger ifrån.
September 1, 2011
Dagsuppdatering 1 september
Samtidigt kryper spanska och italienska räntorna uppåt igen. ECB lär inte gilla att Italien "drar ner" på utlovade på neddragningar.
Det här är en riktigt allvarlig situation och i de flesta fallen kommer den inte förmedlas korrekt av main stream media och anlytiker som, om "mitt" case realiseras, i de flesta fall blir av med sina jobb, bonusar och hus.
August 31, 2011
Dagsuppdatering 31 augusti
August 17, 2011
Dagsuppdatering 16 augusti
Kriget mellan de s.k fundamentalisterna och vad man kan kalla makroinvesterare härjar nu för fullt. Det är intressant att lyssna på båda sidor och man måste analysera deras uppväxt tidsenliga bildning för att förstå deras argument. Fundamentalisterna har under 50 år aldrig behövt ta hänsyn till makrovariabler. Världen har växt i snabb takt och därför har det endast handlat om att undvika bolag som mot förmodan skulle misslyckas i en sådan miljö. Dessa människor fortsätter med det här beteendet. Men oddsen har förändrats. Nu handlar det om att hitta de få bolag som klarar sig i en miljö med i bästa fall tillväxt runt 1%. Buy and hold indexinvesteringar är dödsdömda. Jag ser det som att man har en säljpremie genom att detta fundamentala kollektiv biddar upp priserna över dess jämviktsnivå. Det kommer pågå tills dessa fundamentalister utrotats eller gått över till den andra sidan och förstår att makro spelar roll.
Det börjar bli lite väl enkelt att gå lång när ett möte utannonseras och kort alldeles inför presskonferensen. Den här gången lyckades dock Merkozy att överträffa sig själva i att leverera vad marknaden inte vill höra. Transaktionsskatt? EFSF är tillräckligt stor? ECB köpte 22bn EUR av IS-obligationer senaste veckan. Det innebär drygt två månader av EFSF-kapacitet. Fler och fler beslut verkar tas över huvudet på invånarna, utan någon ambition att förklara en långsiktig plan, eller ens en kortsiktig motivering. Det här skapar sprickor. Om man hade kunnat laga hålet vid första försöket kanske folkmassan hade antingen haft överseende eller snabbt glömt bort det. Men nu är det återkommande maktfullkomligheter från team Merkozy vecka efter vecka och det får folk att säga ifrån. Team M försöker till varje pris hålla ihop euron utan att omgående bli sparkade från sina positioner. Ironiskt nog kan det leda till just motsatsen, sammanbrott av EU och uppkomsten av nationalistiska partier. Har M glömt vad som kan hända?
Marknaden. Innan dagens möte hade jag tänkt åka med marknaden upp en bit till. Det här förändrar en del. Blir intressant att se hur europa reagerar imorgon. Situationen kan jämföras med ett extremt chicken race där du kör mot en galen italienare med en spanjor som kartläsare. Alla upprekyler handlar om att gå kort. Lyckas man plocka lite lång-pengar är det en bonus. Mina grafer och sentimentindikatorer säger att vi kan pressas upp, framför allt vill USA upp till och med optionslösen på fredag. Frågan blir om europas vilja att gå ner tar överhanden. Jag ser uppsida på max 5% och nedsida som är allt från 5 till 20% i en snabb rörelse så positioneringsvikten är åt nedsidan.
July 21, 2011
Dagsuppdatering 21 juli
July 14, 2011
July 11, 2011
Dagsuppdatering
Väldigt få banker kommer vara solventa när alla haircuts är genomförda.
Hoppas bara det inte kraschar så mycket att samhället bryter samman.
July 1, 2011
Månadsuppdatering juli 2011
Hur ska då positioner tas? Backspegeln säger att marknaden var kraftigt bearish och det i sig var tillräckligt att ge uppgång även med en relativt svag grekisk utgång (knapp majoritet i omröstningen). Samtidigt finns hela tiden värderingsstödet där (se tidigare inlägg om plus och minus-faktorer).
I den stora makrobilden arbetar jag dock fortfarande utifrån följande hypoteser
- QE2 är över och kommer därmed inte ge samma stöd åt finansiella tillgångar, råvaror, aktier, ränta.
- Makrobilden är försvagad, cykliska återhämtningen är till stor del över i väst.
- Arbetslöshetssiffror klänger sig kvar på hög nivå vilket hämmar privatkonsumtionen samtidigt som regeringar drar åt budgeten.
- Oljepriset steg återigen till nivåer som närmast leder till recession och faller därefter snabbt tillbaka. Vi har sett det förr och kommer få se det igen så länge vi är beroende av oljan för tillväxt (peak growth/oil).
- Viktigast: Marknaden tror att makro endast försvagades pga Japan och därmed återgår till normalläge H2 2011. Är det så, är dock aktier mycket köpvärda. Studie av makroflödet är därmed viktigt. Idag kommer ISM för juni, andra serier att följa är weekly initial jobless claims samt hur PMI i Kina utvecklas. Siffran som släpptes idag landade på 50,9 och därmed knappt tillväxt. Tittar man på detaljerna är det ännu sämre. Delindexet över exportorderingången sjönk från 49,7 till 46,7 och är nu på sin lägsta nivå sedan mars 2009. Delindexet över färdiga lagervaror backade märkbart från 48,6 till 46,9, också det den lägsta siffran sedan mars 2009.
- När marknaden nu inom någon dag, mitten nästa vecka, neutraliserat det överdrivna bearisha sentimentet tror jag vi kan göra oss redo att ta korta positioner för scenariot ovan. Mikrotrading säger att vi kan stänga ned idag på svag ISM men att rekylen upp fortsätter någon dag nästa vecka.
June 15, 2011
Grekland
Kommande vecka lär det här drachmat nå sin finale. Kom ihåg hypotesen, den svarta svanen, att folket runt om i Europa blir den faktor som säger ifrån - "Sluta lek med oss" till EU, IMF, och världens finansmarknader.
Läget är fortsatt som följer. Grekland behöver pengar. EUs ledare och folk är enbart redo att ge Grekerna pengar om de går i pension samtidigt som övriga, ökar skatter, minskar transfereringar osv. Allt detta kanske skulle gå igenom om inget annat hände, men problemet är att en ekonomi som redan befinner sig i recession skulle gå in i en depression med dessa krävda och planerade neddragningar. Pest eller kolera, spelar inte så stor roll för Grekerna. Varför inte bara skita i allt och på köpet ge en rejäl känga till omvärlden.
Framför allt kommer problemen eskalera när samma sak händer i Spanien... Portugal.. och Irland. Europas unga lever i fattigdom på bekostnad av aktiemarknaden. Det förhållandet är absurt nog också anledningen till den starka aktiemarknaden. Resultatet är alltså en väldigt digital värld, där allt faller om folket får det tillräckligt dåligt men fortsätter stiga om folket bara har det lagom dåligt...
Så vad krävs för att lyckas med investeringar? Politisk analys och sentimentanalys. Släng alla kassaflödesanalyser ut genom fönstret det kommande året.
Tillägg 2011-06-18: Nu kör även Aftonbladet igång på allvar med en kritisk granskning av grekerna! Härligt. Granska också våra svenska politiker som vill fortsätta att pumpa pengar till grekerna och ställ de obekväma frågorna som verkar vara än mer politiskt inkorrekta att ta i än t.ex. invandringen till Sverige.
http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/analys/wolfganghansson/article13192602.ab
http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article13192165.ab
http://www.dn.se/ekonomi/skuldrekonstruktion-i-grekland-oundviklig
http://www.dn.se/ekonomi/mentaliteten-ar-greklands-problem
Dagsuppdatering 15 juni
Tillägg 15/6. För mycket kring Grekland nu och eventuell ny regering som kommer ge en ny spik nedåt i aktieindex. Svår rörelse nu när det är översålt och minsta lilla positiv nyhet kan ge ett rally. Tanken var att kunna gå kort från en högre nivå, nu är jag inklämd mellan köp och säljnivå. Stänger lång position på break even och letar möjlighet att gå kort.