Chart update 7/19

Basically I do not believe we will ascend faster than 96-200.

Weekly update 7/18

After this mornings squeeze above all time highs I am quite comfortable entering short positions on a daily, weekly and monthly time frame.

We now have reports out from the strongest companies as well as infinity + 1 speeches from the Bernank. What else is there really?

We also have neutralisation of overly bearish sentiment as is witnessed in the AAII sentiment survey as well as put/call ratios and data from individual broker firms.

Hedged positions can consist of:

Long SPX, short tech in general or weak companies like BBRY, NOK, LOGI, AAPL, LXK, HPQ. Remember that the market boat has lifted these as well over the last months.

Long SPX, short commodities.

Long Germany, short PIGS.

Basically these are the themes that I have held as a base all year.

Weekly update 7/16

Ok, so right now with the snp at 1674 we are at the one day pullback as outlined earlier. Expect aths and then there is potential for the larger correction/ consolidation phase.

Weekly update 7/10

SPX at 1652. A lot of intraday hedging going on for me today since market behaviour favour that the last breath run could continue another week or maximum two as outlined in previous post. I am daytrading in this environment, paying respect to the upward momentum and waiting for that to wane. Probably we will see a one day pullback met by some buying and then a failure with the following movement. Stay patient and know that the next big move is down.

weekly update 7/9

Sticking to plan in previous post and staying short here. Both equities and broad based commodities basket. Very strong "short" focus by also being long the dollar vs various other currencies. Sure it is possible we will see the squeeze continuing one more week but up here it is not worth chasing even if the last points in a bull run squeeze like this is very "easy" money for the correctly positioned traders. With easy, I mean that it is usually a low volume, quick increase in asset prices, compared to the more long term fundamentally anchored increase that is more choppy.

weekly update 7/1

My last post was one of a cautionary stance. I am keeping my exposure low still with this chop-chop going on. But I am seeing signs of a continuation to the downside in most risky assets starting within a week or two from now. As correlations are all over the map right now, with the dollar, commodities, gold and equities swithings signs from day to day, I am still keeping my size small and scaling in to bearish positions both in time and price, for the moment, increasing only on rips.

In 1-2 weeks or when S&P hits 1630-1635, whatever comes first, I will be fully short.