Bull against bear

Financial markets, macro economics, politics and everything else concerning the global markets. The writer is a long time investment banking operative in the nordic markets. The blog is usually updated once a week with specific trading advice. On a monthly basis, the goal is to provide a strategy update. In addition to that, there will be posts of more general content, housing bubbles, investment strategies and more.

January 3, 2013

Weekly update 1/3

Woha, debt ceiling relief with a boost! So what is the reaction to the action?

1) Debt ceiling relief. Short term, sell voll and await a further squeeze to 1480-1500. There it's time to be net short again. Seems like we will have a strong NFP report tomorrow and maybe finish the squeeze into january opex.

2) The Feds announcement of ending QE 2013! This is huge. My calls on buying USD, selling commodities including gold was valid even without this announcement. Now these strategy calls seems like the best bets for the year. Sell everything commodity and small cap like and buy large cap and relatively safer assets. Don't confuse end of QE with end of 0 short term interest rates. I believe that further along there will be requirements for more QE and then new buying opportunities in commodities. We are far from there right now though. The bullish retail speculators need to be flushed out.
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