Weekly update

SPX @ 1512. The crowd turned awfully bearish after just one day of declines. I used the decline to sell vol and increase longs on equities while slightly decreasing shorts in the commodity space. Also keeping a bunch of shorts in weak equity names. The consensus is now very much to buy the dip and see new all time highs. My playbook says that we first at least will get a fake new high of the year in early march and then we could be in for some sort of wider consolidation period until things become more clear. At that point I would aggressively short commodities and almost as aggressively short some equities and on third place broader equity indices.  So, first higher, but less than the crowd consensus will be, and then down, through the buy the dip camp levels. Perfect for fooling as many as possible.