So, we have come a long way in a short period of time. SPX at close to all time highs, indices everywhere on multi year highs. And people are still very bearish. That is the force driving this market higher still, in a pattern that means far between corrections and that corrections, when they come, happen at the point bears capitulate strongly, like >+1% days. I am starting to balance my portfolio from net long, to balanced (long equities balanced by short equity names mostly in the tech space as well as commodities).
I will also let myself be short some indices, mainly southern europe, going in to march and april. Below I offer a daily 1 year view and weekly 20 year view of SPX. First, I believe we will make some swings around these levels, to frustrate the hell out of bears who will pile on shorts on any decline and then run for cover on new highs, as well as new high buyers that will be whipsawed out of the market... in numbers lets aim for 10-30 point swings in SPX with a slight upward bias, moving in interval 1540-1570.
Intermediate term ~3 months, I would say it makes sense to look for sideways, if not lower prices from around these levels.
Choose your aggressiveness, long/short according to earlier strategies, equities/commodities or go outright short, depending on your risk level. You can also choose to go long SPX vs short NDX or long SPX vs short european indices etc.
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